Don’t Put All Your Bets on One Number: A Guide to Thinking in Probabilities

Description

Most of us are trained to think in terms of single-point estimates or predictions — one value for cost, one finish date for a schedule, one projection for performance. But those single points rarely capture the uncertainty we actually face. At this Lunch & Learn, Tony Huval, P.E., Program Director at CSRS, will show how probabilistic thinking provides a clearer picture of both risks and opportunities.

You'll learn:

• Why single-point estimates often mislead decision-makers.
• How probability distributions reveal a range of possible outcomes.
• Real-world examples of applying probabilistic analysis to budgets, schedules, and forecasts.
• Ways to communicate uncertainty that build confidence with clients and leadership.

Instead of betting on a single value, discover how to make better decisions by understanding the full range of what might happen.